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Nov 30,2007
Oregon forecasters expect slow growth but many job openings
by Bend Weekly News Sources

This week the Employment Department released its projections of employment for 2016. The projections point to slow job growth in Oregon between 2006 and 2016 but many job openings due to the need to replace workers who leave their current occupations.
The department’s forecasters expect economic growth to add more than 240,000 jobs, a gain of 14 percent over the decade. This growth is about the same as the 15-percent gain between 1996 and 2006 but slower than in many other 10-year periods. All broad industry sectors are slated to add jobs between 2006 and 2016.
We project educational and health services – buoyed by the state’s growing and aging population – to grow by 28 percent or by more than 57,000 jobs. The professional and business services sector will grow by about 21 percent or almost 40,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality adds 19 percent or more than 32,000 jobs. The slowest-growing sectors are manufacturing and natural resources, with only 1 percent growth over the decade. A few of the detailed industry groups – including federal government, logging, wood product manufacturing, and paper manufacturing – see actual job losses.
Despite slow job growth in the economy as a whole, many job openings should result from current workers leaving their occupations. In addition to more than 240,000 job openings due to economic growth, the department expects more than 450,000 job openings due to the need to replace current workers who leave their occupations.
Three occupational groups – office and administrative support; professional and related; and services occupations – together represent almost half (47%) of all employment in 2006 and 51 percent of projected growth job openings.
High-paying, high-demand occupations include registered nurses, various teaching occupations, electricians, police and sheriff patrol officers, accountants and auditors, and plumbers.
Projections for Oregon’s 15 workforce regions show the fastest growth in Central Oregon and in counties near the Columbia Gorge. Metro areas are also expected to grow at close to the statewide average. Most rural areas show slower growth.
The projections are available on the department’s economic and workforce information Web site at www.QualityInfo.org. Select the Regions page from the links on the left and look in the Publications list for Regional Projections by Industry and Occupation 2006-2016.
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